
The decline of Europe’s utilities has certainly been startling. At their peak in 2008, the top 20 energy utilities were worth roughly €1 trillion ($1.3 trillion). Now they are worth less than half that (see chart 1). Since September 2008, utilities have been the worst-performing sector in the Morgan Stanley index of global share prices. In 2008 the top ten European utilities all had credit ratings of A or better. Now only five do.
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The rot has gone furthest in Germany, where electricity from renewable sources has grown fastest. The country’s biggest utility, E.ON, has seen its share price fall by three-quarters from the peak and its income from conventional power generation (fossil fuels and nuclear) fall by more than a third since 2010…As the company’s chief financial officer laments, “Conventional power generation, quite frankly, as a business unit, is fighting for its economic survival.”
So the gas and nuclear bits of the utilities’ business were heading for trouble even before the renewables bonanza, making the growth of solar and wind all the more disruptive. Renewables capacity (which is much higher than output) is almost half of electricity-generating capacity in Germany and roughly one-third in Spain and Italy. Total capacity, including renewables, is way above peak demand in all three countries. So renewables have added mightily to oversupply.
As much as I would love to receive some negative electricity bills, the current market situation makes me uneasy. Market disruption is great, as long as it drives down prices and/or introduces technological advances which drive greater efficiency. But these negative electricity prices are an illusion as they do not reflect the billions in subsidies directed at renewables sources. The key to positive market disruption is driving down net pricing – with the emphasis on net. The current market disruption begs the question of the wisdom of continuing such subsidies. Breast-feeding is great, and natural/renewable, but sooner or later – one must be weaned.